Sea Level is on the Rise in Bellingham Bay

Bellingham, Washington is nestled in the heart of the Salish Sea, situated in the foothills of Mount Baker. Bellingham Bay hugs the waterfront which is occupied by many parks, neighborhoods, and businesses. Rising sea levels are beginning to affect waterfront communities like Bellingham, and city officials are beginning to prepare for what is to come.

The City of Bellingham, partnered with the Port of Bellingham, is only just beginning to piece together preparations for rising sea levels, according to Kurt Baumgarten, the environmental planner for the Port of Bellingham.

“Other cities along the West Coast have already implemented models that have worked,” said Baumgarten. “These places are more advanced in the process, and I’d say that Bellingham is a little behind.”

The city of Bellingham is currently planning for over 1.2 meters (four feet) of sea level rise by 2100, according to Steve Sundin, the city planner. Sundin said that they are considering two different paths that rising sea levels could take in the future.

“They’re called representative concentration pathways,” said Sundin. “One assumes that as a global community, we will curb our emissions and emissions will tail off and the sea level will rise X amount.” The other path involves no curbing of current emissions, which will lead to even higher sea level rise.

A shoreline master program is currently in the works, according to Sundin. This document will regulate development along Bellingham’s shorelines and will take into require building to meet sea level rise requirements. This will also be a document to which citizens can refer when they have questions about what exactly is being planned.

“Up to where we’re at today, we’re in the process of creating an adaptation plan that accounts for sea level rise,” said Sundin. “It would incorporate the best available science as it occurs.” Sundin said these documents could be adopted as soon as June 2021.

Although most of the focus is currently on the Waterfront District, Sundin explained that the city owns the property that stretches from the mouth of Squalicum Creek down to Teddy Bear Cove, which is over seven miles’ worth of coastline.

This coastline includes Boulevard Park, which sits on the bay halfway between downtown Bellingham and Fairhaven. It is often sprinkled with visitors admiring a scenic view of Lummi and Orcas island to the southwest and Canada’s Coast Mountain range to the northwest. Although it is currently a hotspot for both locals and tourists, the park could be almost completely underwater in 80 years if sea levels continue to rise at their current rate.

Bellingham’s waterfront buildings are at least five to seven feet above the mean high water mark, according to a 2018 report from the City and the Port of Bellingham. The mean high water mark is the absolute highest point the water reaches at high tide. With rising sea levels, this high water mark will creep higher.

Raising site grades is one of the most financially feasible options for Bellingham to raise its buildings to accommodate rising sea levels, according to Sundin. This process involves literally adding rock, sand, and gravel to raise the ground level on which a building will stand.

As of right now, there is only one project that has happened that included sea level rise preparation. Off of Cornwall Avenue in Bellingham is the RG Haley cleanup site. Here, layers are being added to eventually raise the ground level for future building plans that will keep it safe from rising sea levels. Future plans to raise site grades include property around Waypoint Park.

Bellingham’s marine industries that need access to water and buildings with a low initial cost or short life span will be modified as needed. Buildings with a longer life or more significant investment will be raised to necessary heights. Baumgarten said that the city must prioritize what buildings to worry about first, such as schools and hospitals.

Although the city of Bellingham itself will be relatively unaffected by rising sea levels in the next 100 years, other communities within Bellingham Bay don’t have the bluffs and hills that Bellingham does.

Lowlands such as Marietta, which is located around the mouth of the Nooksack River, will be wiped out. The Lummi Reservation, which is now considered mainland, could potentially become an island before the end of the century. These areas are home to lots of farmland, but also places like Northwest Indian College, the Lummi Flats, and countless neighborhoods.

Only a small percentage of citizens within Bellingham city limits have to worry about being affected by sea level rise, said Sundin. The only people that would be significantly affected are those that live in Chuckanut Village and boat owners. Sundin recognized that there are multiple places outside of city limits, such as Birch Bay, that could soon be affected by sea level rise.

The city is relying heavily on information provided by the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) that was developed by the United States Geological Survey. CoSMoS provides detailed predictions of how sea level rise will affect an area and helps cities know how to prepare for the future.

Sea level rise is fueled by climate change and is a result of global warming and melting ice. Sea level rise triggers more intense storms and flooding, which have already been observed in the area.

“It’s not just about sea level rise,” said Eric Grossman, a research associate at the United States Geological Survey in 2017 at a Baker to Bay meeting. “It’s really a lot about storms and waves that are going to be impacting shores with sea level rise.”

Baumgarten added that there is a lot of variation when considering sea level rise and the weather that can impact it.

“A king tide on a warm, sunny day is going to be different than the same tide on a cold, stormy winter day,” said Baumgarten. “You can have heavy rainfalls and melting snow from the mountains rushing to the ocean coupled with high winds pushing this bulge of water against the coast, which will increase the highest water mark.” Baumgarten said that it is important to question all of these situations when deciding where the highest water mark will be and whether or not to allow some safe space for such variation.

To see how sea level rise will affect specific areas, Surging Seas: Risk Zone Map provides detailed visuals on how vulnerable coastlines will be now and in the future.